On the mid and long terms, economic changes underway will have a long last effect that surpasses all segmentations of class and income.
In modern-day societies all around the world, inter- and extra-class transitions are not out of the ordinary. In fact, it is a constant dynamic in which segments of the society climb up the class ladder, while others descend.
However, the middle class is usually central to the socio-economic dynamic.
It happens, nonetheless, that every so often, externally imposed economic transmutations could drive fundamental shifts in the demographics and social status of any given society. Notably, these shifts can go positive or negative, depending on the thoroughness and comprehensiveness of strategy and protocol.
Of course, Amman is the largest city in Jordan, followed by Zarqa and Irbid. And even though so many people have no other option but to move to the capital, the costs of life in Amman has caused many Jordanian households to reconsider.
Not long ago, before the recent price hikes and tax revamps, Amman was one of the most expensive cities in the Arab World.
With the influx of refugees over the years, costs of services and rent have skyrocketed, reflecting disastrously on Jordanians.
Many did not move to Amman because they simply wanted to. The economy is centralised mostly in Amman. Jobs and the hopes of a better future are here, which is the reason why so many families have relocated.
Obviously too, the relative democratisation of services, including higher education and various facilities has not made a dent in the influx urban migration either. As tens of thousands of graduates are unable to find jobs in the governorates, they look to the Capital in hopes of actually finding a job.
Soon, the reality of the situation will change for all.
Jordanians on fixed income will no longer be able to afford life in Amman. On the other hand, entire generations of graduates will not find enough jobs with sufficient pays to cover the bare minimum expense of life in the Capital.
Slowly, the conditions of life in Amman become more difficult, one year after the other. It will not be long before signs of reverse migration start surfacing, as people begin to move out of the major cities to the suburbs and the outskirts.
If the New City project is to see the light, I would say many Jordanians will race to find a footing there, if the government makes sure the prices are right. Especially for unemployed youth.
On a positive note, somewhat, there are many Jordanians who would prefer to go back to their “hometowns” as opposed to the city.
The problem has always been the chances of making a decent living in the more marginalised governorates of Jordan.
That said, the question is: What are decision makers preparing for this highly plausible scenario?
The government must begin planning for the inevitability of reverse migration. And it should begin bow, before this turns into a crisis in and of itself, as issues often do in this part of the world, due to the shortsightedness of public policy.
Naturally, this begins with the redirection of investment towards the governorates, instead of Amman. It also entails advanced SME development strategies and reincorporation of cooperative economics, particularly in agriculture.
Of course, this would also require no small effort to enhance public education and healthcare services.
The Capital has absorbed millions of citizens and refugees over the decades.
So much that Amman now accounts for more than half of the Kingdom’s residents, which is a concern in and of itself.
It unveils a fatal developmental flaw in the planning and wealth distribution.
Addressing the searing costs of life in the Capital requires that the government invest in making available other, equally feasible options for citizens beyond Amman.
What is the government doing about it?
This article is an edited translation of the Arabic version, published by AlGhad
