By Fahed Khitan
As expected, King Abdullah II participated in the inauguration ceremony of Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.
Previously, the King met him when he visited Cairo a few days after the overthrow of previous Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. That day, the King met with Interim President Adli Mansour, but met privately with alSisi.
During the past months, the King and Sisi were in constant contact. And when he ran the last election, he received valuable tips from the King. It is expected that Amman will be one of the first stations of al-Sisi’s foreign travels, after Saudi Arabia which he will visit soon.
Jordan was very close to the developments that occurred in Egypt after the fall of the regime of Hosni Mubarak. The news of his downfall were not happy for Jordanian politicians, but it was an expected event, which has been predicted by the former ambassador in Cairo a year or more before it happened.
One of the constants of Jordanian politics is that Egypt has a leadership role in the Arab world and no other country should dispute it.
This conviction did not change with the change in presidents in Egypt, or in by the change in their relations with Jordan; When King Hussein, may God have mercy on his soul, was informed that the late Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser will launch a war against Israel in 1967, he immediately went to Cairo, despite the deterioration of relations between the two countries, immediately signed common defense agreements, and deployed the Jordanian army under the command of an Egyptian general.
When the relations worsened with the regime of Anwar Sadat's after Camp David, Jordan was one of the first Arab countries that have diplomatic relations restored with Cairo. In the Mubarak era, sensitivities were many, but Jordan remained careful not to compete with Egypt on its pivotal role in various issues of the region, even though King Hussein passed while angery at Mubarak's position from the first Gulf War in 1991.
Jordanian politics resemble, this area, Saudi politics. While Saudi Arabia is a major country in the region, it has always made sure to respect Egypt's historical role.
Today, Jordan feels the burdens of a historical moment, and the size of the risks posed by the instability that passes through the region; it sees Egypt in the presence of a strong scene in an urgent demand that cannot be ignored. Will Egypt, during the reign of al-Sisi, be ready to regain its leadership role?
That depends on many factors, most notably the ability of the new regime to contain the internal crises, and to achieve national reconciliation; without stability and cohesion domestically, one cannot play a compelling role externally.
Sisi's inauguration will transform the triple alliance; Jordanian-Saudi-Emirati, to a quadruple, and Egypt will play a pivotal role in it. Three countries were awaiting the outcome of the election for the launch of the new version.
On an Arab level, the main challenge before the quadruple alliance is the situation in Syria. In principle, there seems to be divergence of views about the situation of the Bashar al-Assad regime between Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Sisi spoke about Syria in a language closer to the Jordanian position than to that of Saudi Arabia; it focused on terrorism as a priority in the standoff there, contrary to the perception of Saudi Arabia, which is more focused on toppling the regime.
It is very important that the four nations have a clear vision on Syria, and open the lines of communication with Qatar; in the absence of an active international or regional stance, there is a need for Arab diplomacy to fill the void, and open the door to a solution that would avoid further losses for Syria.
Certainly, all of these considerations were in the King’s mind on the way to Cairo to attend the inauguration ceremony of a President the whole nation is divided about his legitimacy.
@fahed_khitan
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic edition.
