Prominent Syrian opposition Michel Kilo expressed a sense of betrayal by the American Administration practical contradiction with declared US positions from Bashar Assad!
The plan Kilo spoke of is the one prepared by known American research and studies corporation, “RAND”, on two stages: one in January 2015, and the second, an upgrade from the first was constructed in April 2016, in light of field progress at the time.
Typically, the American administration did not officially adopt the RAND plan, but it is no secret that the Corporation is one of the closest establishments to the US Department of Defence. More importantly, RAND’s “A Peace Plan for Syria” seems to be the actually plan implemented on the ground by the US Administration, comparatively, contrary to political and diplomatic claim.
The essential idea of the plan lies in comprehensive redefinition of American interests in Syria, for the US to completely forego of the plan to take Assad out of office; an idea considered inapplicable, by RAND, on the short run, as well as ditching the whole “democratic, secular, pluralist Syria” aspiration, reduced by RAND experts as too idealistic to be achieved!
So, what alternative is being brought to the table? In short, the proposed roadmap aims to reinforce the truce, to begin with, given it is a priority necessity to uphold political negotiation; divide Syria into 4 preliminary zones: from Lazkiye through Hums and parts of Aleppo to Damascus, with the Regime, by Russian guarantees; the Kurdish areas to the north; third are the areas controlled by the opposition in Idlib, under Turkish regional sponsorship, as well as Daraa and the south, under Jordanian sponsorship, leaving —fourth— the rest of the areas, Raqqa, Deir el Zour, and parts of the Syrian Badia under ISIS control.
Accordingly, the 3 experts who prepared this plan expect 3 of these zones, and their regional sponsors, to uphold the cease-fire, leaving ISIS-areas out of the truce. Subsequently, with the reinforcement of the truce, and the instilling of the cease-fire in light of peaceful negotiations, everybody will soon be dedicated to fighting ISIS and putting an end to their influence in the areas under their control. Should that play out as planned, the liberated areas are to be placed under international and regional supervision.
In a later stage, the plan also anticipates the placement of either a federation or a confederation to hold Syrian regions together, given the difficulty of maintaining a unified Syria as it once was.
The paper suggests 4 options to addressing the relations of Syrian components among themselves, and to a political resolution, entailed by the concept of decentralisation, starting from diluted decentralisation, all the way to institutionalism, asymmetry, to arrive finally at symmetric decentralisation. All these scenarios are based on the prospects of instilling the relative reality; the endorsement of current controlling agents, with some compensation and compromise, particularly between the Regime and the opposition in Aleppo and Syria, to redefine the final objective, from toppling the Syrian regime to suspending the civil war.
The difference lies in that RAND experts consider, implicitly, Turkey and Saudi as hindrances to the solution, for their persistence to overthrow Assad even were it at the expense of the very last Syrian, while Jordan, UAE, and Egypt have adopted a closer view to the US. On the other hand, these experts see that Hizbollah’s participation is instrumental to the military truce.
The plan, in all entailed detail and conclusion, outlines the real US vision for Syria, and is primal to understanding the ongoings on the ground, and the real American position!
